Games › Open World › Open World + Simulation
Should I ship a Simulation Open World game?
Open World + Simulation
Of 865 developers who shipped a Simulation Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,832 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×4.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2425 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,832 games are announced against 525 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,197) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.0k (exactly $5,994) |
| Top 25% | $91k (exactly $91,289) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 865 |
| Released games | 3,093 |
| Announced | 1,832 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Exploration, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 876,716 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 435 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,832 games are announced against 525 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012 · $454M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | Euro Truck Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 756,984 97% | 23M | $454M (exactly $453,963,305) | SCS Software |
 | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Stardew Valley | older | $14.99 | 894,201 98% | 27M | $402M (exactly $402,122,190) | ConcernedApe |
 | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
 | The Forest | older | $19.99 | 581,431 95% | 17M | $349M (exactly $348,684,171) | Endnight Games Ltd |
 | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | Schedule I | · EA | $19.99 | 288,939 97% | 8.7M | $173M (exactly $173,276,718) | TVGS |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition | $59.99 | 70,073 78% | 2.1M | $126M (exactly $126,110,378) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome | $29.99 | 56,535 65% | 1.7M | $51M (exactly $50,864,540) | ConchShip Games | |
 | My Summer Car | $14.99 | 108,503 94% | 3.3M | $49M (exactly $48,793,799) | Amistech Games | |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Slime Rancher 2 | $29.99 | 43,590 94% | 1.3M | $39M (exactly $39,217,923) | Monomi Park | |
 | Wobbly Life | $24.99 | 33,034 97% | 991k | $25M (exactly $24,765,590) | RubberBandGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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