Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Open World game?

Open World + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 31 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 59 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 59 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $327 → $390 → $599 → $150 → $0 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $599 (exactly $599)
Top 5% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 121
Announced 59
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,190 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $3.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

POSTAL 4: No Regerts 2022 · $6.5M Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered 2021 · $3.6M Minishoot' Adventures 2024 · $3.5M Disney•Pixar Cars 2015 · $1.2M Hunt Down The Freeman 2018 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
POSTAL 4: No Regerts older $19.99 10,855 67% 326k $6.5M (exactly $6,509,743) Running With Scissors
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Disney•Pixar Cars older $19.99 1,940 89% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,418) Beenox
Hunt Down The Freeman older $9.99 3,785 54% 114k $1.1M (exactly $1,134,364) Royal Rudius Entertainment
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
BioGun older $19.99 488 87% 15k $293k (exactly $292,654) Dapper Dog Digital
Shark Attack Deathmatch 2 older $4.99 1,415 74% 42k $212k (exactly $211,826) Lighthouse Games Studio
Thunder Wolves older $9.99 446 84% 13k $134k (exactly $133,666) Most Wanted Entertainment
GRING×GRIND $4.99 24 66% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Lola Fisher
Astro Busters · EA $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Michael Prymus, Piotr Przybył
Subzero Stealth · EA $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Verona Interactive
DA PAPER BOY $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) 3D Dojo Studios
The Soul of Romit $3.99 7 57% 210 $838 (exactly $838) Kleon Studio
Glusiverse · EA $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Trusiga
Lost Soul of the Missing Island $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) CDIS Lab.
Run and Gun 2: Opossum City · EA $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Metacortec
Kitty Combat $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Lucius Braunstein

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.