Games › Open World › Open World + Sandbox
Should I ship a Sandbox Open World game?
Open World + Sandbox
Of 745 developers who shipped a Sandbox Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,719 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $12k, ×8.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.0M, ×3365 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 1,719 games are announced against 456 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) |
|---|---|
| Median | $12k (exactly $12,288) |
| Top 25% | $229k (exactly $228,742) |
| Top 5% | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 745 |
| Released games | 2,545 |
| Announced | 1,719 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Adventure
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,731,071 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 6 in 10 of the 344 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,719 games are announced against 456 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
 | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
 | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Stardew Valley | older | $14.99 | 894,201 98% | 27M | $402M (exactly $402,122,190) | ConcernedApe |
 | Terraria | older | $9.99 | 1,240,388 97% | 37M | $372M (exactly $371,744,284) | Re-Logic |
 | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
 | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome | $29.99 | 56,535 65% | 1.7M | $51M (exactly $50,864,540) | ConchShip Games | |
 | My Summer Car | $14.99 | 108,503 94% | 3.3M | $49M (exactly $48,793,799) | Amistech Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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