Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Open World game?

Open World + Runner

Of 37 developers who shipped a Runner Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 21 developers shipped in the last year and 46 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $299 → $479 → $148 → $959 → $238 → $359 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $959 (exactly $959)
Top 5% $344k (exactly $344,495)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 100
Announced 46
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 13,646 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $240, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst 2020 · $8.4M Haste 2025 · $7.6M Island Notes 2025 · $344k JumpJet Rex 2015 · $74k [Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 2021 · $65k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
JumpJet Rex older $9.99 248 91% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) TreeFortress Games
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
[Chilla's Art] Hanako | 花子さん older $7.99 229 75% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) Chilla's Art
City Zoomer older $4.99 160 93% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,952) Planet Renox
Run Pizza Run older $4.99 83 86% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) IZI Games
Fox Simulator · EA older $7.99 38 65% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Meng Games
Rabbit Simulator older $4.99 55 81% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Meng Games
Campfire: Night One $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Prisca, Mezey Krisztián
Chicken with Robot Legs $8.99 12 91% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) GalloPintoGames
Condemned to Clean $5.99 13 76% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) KOMA
Drive $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Gamesforgames
Sales, Science & Spirits $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Ufo Pizza Productions, Zero Point Games
Money Theft $4.99 13 76% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Only Straight and Up! $19.99 3 33% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) AF Games
行走 Walk $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) 无音 Deaf Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.