Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Open World game?

Open World + Romance

Of 58 developers who shipped a Romance Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $22k, ×15 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1028 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 91 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $62k → $9.0k → $94k → $76k → $22k → $38k → $6.0k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Median $22k (exactly $22,478)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $100,750)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 175
Announced 91
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 40,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $22k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 4 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Tales of ARISE older $49.99 27,643 86% 829k $41M (exactly $41,456,207) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Mass Effect™: Andromeda Deluxe Edition older $39.99 16,741 73% 502k $20M (exactly $20,084,178) BioWare
GreedFall older $34.99 18,460 75% 554k $19M (exactly $19,377,462) Spiders
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster older $29.99 19,857 87% 596k $18M (exactly $17,865,343) Square Enix
Sword and Fairy 7 older $29.99 15,567 72% 467k $14M (exactly $14,005,630) 软星科技(SoftStarlight)
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Mass Effect (2007) older $29.99 14,871 93% 446k $13M (exactly $13,379,439) BioWare
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
GreedFall: The Dying World $49.99 1,027 61% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) Spiders
Shattered Minds · EA $12.99 1,507 91% 45k $587k (exactly $587,278) eXtasy Games
To Pixelia $14.99 1,194 73% 36k $537k (exactly $536,942) Pixeduo Studios
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Sensual Adventures - Treasure Island · EA $29.99 303 81% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) Puppetmaster3dx
万词破 - 单词女友 $14.99 448 89% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) 万词破学游组
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
On Your Tail $19.99 292 87% 8.8k $175k (exactly $175,112) Memorable Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.