Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Open World game?

Open World + Roguelite

Of 96 developers who shipped a Roguelite Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 202 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1457 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 202 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 202 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $2.9k → $6.6k → $1.8k → $3.6k → $9.6k → $7.2k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $67,905)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 264
Announced 202
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 216,015 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 202 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M Noita 2020 · $49M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 嗜血印 Bloody Spell 2022 · $26M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Samson $24.99 2,911 54% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377) Liquid Swords
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.