Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Resource Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Resource Management Open World game?

Open World + Resource Management

Of 255 developers who shipped a Resource Management Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 581 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.9k, ×5.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×2156 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 581 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 581 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Resource Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 255
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $22k → $6.6k → $6.7k → $22k → $10k → $16k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Resource Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 255
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 25% $99k (exactly $98,765)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708)
Developers, 2 yr 255
Released games 628
Announced 581
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Resource Management
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Resource Management; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 118,700 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $7.9k, 1 in 4 over $98k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 581 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Planet Zoo older $44.99 81,191 90% 2.4M $110M (exactly $109,583,493) Frontier Developments
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Jurassic World Evolution 2 older $59.99 39,644 90% 1.2M $71M (exactly $71,347,307) Frontier Developments
Jurassic World Evolution older $44.99 48,311 87% 1.4M $65M (exactly $65,205,357) Frontier Developments
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.