Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics Open World game?

Open World + Real Time Tactics

Of 29 developers who shipped a Real Time Tactics Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 111 more are announced, ×9.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×4.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $3.4M, ×2306 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 111 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 111 announced, ×9.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.6k → $299 → $1.8k → $51k → $19k → $189k (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,194)
Top 25% $189k (exactly $188,842)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 134
Announced 111
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Real Time Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Adventure
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 21,689 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $3.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 111 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Arma Reforger older $39.99 51,613 80% 1.5M $62M (exactly $61,920,116) Bohemia Interactive
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold: Definitive Edition older $14.99 9,787 86% 294k $4.4M (exactly $4,401,214) Firefly Studios
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
War on the Sea older $39.99 3,151 76% 95k $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) Killerfish Games
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Steel Division: Normandy 44 older $19.99 4,765 74% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,857,570) Eugen Systems
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Worship · EA $19.99 197 77% 5.9k $118k (exactly $118,141) Chasing Rats Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.