Games › Open World › Open World + Quick-Time Events
Should I ship a Quick-Time Events Open World game?
Open World + Quick-Time Events
Only 9 developers shipped a Quick-Time Events Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rock Star Life Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×3.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×125 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.5k (exactly $4,496) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,086) |
| Top 5% | $187k (exactly $186,601) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 25 |
| Announced | 23 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Quick-Time Events
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Quick-Time Events
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 75,016 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin’s Creed® Rogue 2015 · $13M 
Ryse: Son of Rome 2014 · $11M 
The Beast Inside 2019 · $7.9M 
Shenmue I & II 2018 · $1.9M 
Shenmue III 2020 · $925k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin’s Creed® Rogue | older | $19.99 | 21,310 86% | 639k | $13M (exactly $12,779,607) | Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev |
| | Ryse: Son of Rome | older | $9.99 | 38,308 87% | 1.1M | $11M (exactly $11,480,908) | Crytek |
| | The Beast Inside | older | $24.99 | 10,528 83% | 316k | $7.9M (exactly $7,892,842) | Illusion Ray |
| | Shenmue I & II | older | $29.99 | 2,144 89% | 64k | $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) | D3T |
| | Shenmue III | older | $29.99 | 1,028 75% | 31k | $925k (exactly $924,892) | YS NET |
 | 反转21克 | older | $8.99 | 1,020 72% | 31k | $275k (exactly $275,094) | 想象颗粒 |
 | Rock Star Life Simulator | $12.49 | 498 85% | 15k | $187k (exactly $186,601) | HOGO Games | |
 | Randoville | · EA older | $14.99 | 63 63% | 1.9k | $28k (exactly $28,331) | AVE Team |
 | U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity | $12.99 | 70 68% | 2.1k | $27k (exactly $27,279) | Danny Ziemer | |
 | The Shaman's Ark | $9.99 | 47 97% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | Amortiz Games | |
 | Sex Shop Simulator: Sinful Girls | $7.99 | 57 43% | 1.7k | $14k (exactly $13,663) | Bits, Bytes & Sins | |
 | Daughter of The Void | · EA | $9.99 | 15 100% | 450 | $4.5k (exactly $4,496) | Shaybabe |
 | Night of the Dead Simulator | $7.99 | 12 50% | 360 | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) | Unknown People Lab | |
 | City 33 | $15.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) | ebt studios | |
 | Pocket Flight | $9.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Just Pocket Games | |
 | TooneQuest | $5.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Enders Workshop |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.