Games › Open World › Open World + PvP
Should I ship a PvP Open World game?
Open World + PvP
Of 149 developers who shipped a PvP Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 611 more are announced, ×6.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×4.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $29M, ×19712 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 611 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $900 (exactly $900) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.5k (exactly $6,475) |
| Top 25% | $249k (exactly $249,444) |
| Top 5% | $30M (exactly $29,528,081) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 149 |
| Released games | 737 |
| Announced | 611 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 37%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, PvP; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Sandbox, Adventure
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 936,071 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 102 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 611 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M 
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
 | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
 | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
 | Battlefield™ V | older | $49.99 | 236,709 70% | 7.1M | $355M (exactly $354,992,487) | DICE |
 | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
 | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
 | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO | $49.99 | 50,395 86% | 1.5M | $76M (exactly $75,577,382) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 | $69.99 | 14,063 44% | 422k | $30M (exactly $29,528,081) | Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware) | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | Assetto Corsa EVO | · EA | $39.99 | 16,545 60% | 496k | $20M (exactly $19,849,036) | KUNOS Simulazioni |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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