Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Precision Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Precision Platformer Open World game?

Open World + Precision Platformer

Of 41 developers who shipped a Precision Platformer Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. Revenue is down 40% on the market, with 52 games announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 52 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Precision Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $1.2k → $119 → $240 → $6.7k → $298 → $899 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Precision Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 5% $37k (exactly $36,582)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 117
Announced 52
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Precision Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Precision Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,000 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Aeterna Noctis 2021 · $1.5M VVVVVV 2010 · $997k Unbound: Worlds Apart 2021 · $720k Tchia 2024 · $514k Lone Fungus 2023 · $450k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aeterna Noctis older $29.99 1,699 76% 51k $1.5M (exactly $1,528,590) Aeternum Game Studios S.L
VVVVVV older $4.99 6,657 96% 200k $997k (exactly $996,553) Terry Cavanagh
Unbound: Worlds Apart older $19.99 1,200 82% 36k $720k (exactly $719,640) Alien Pixel Studios
Tchia older $29.99 571 89% 17k $514k (exactly $513,729) Awaceb
Lone Fungus older $19.99 751 85% 23k $450k (exactly $450,375) BASTI GAMES
Bat to the Heavens $14.99 407 95% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) ceroro
Super Win the Game older $7.99 527 89% 16k $126k (exactly $126,322) Minor Key Games
WarriOrb older $12.99 127 77% 3.8k $49k (exactly $49,492) Not Yet
Before I Go $19.99 79 83% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) J's Labratory
Kandria older $19.99 74 91% 2.2k $44k (exactly $44,378) Shirakumo Games
Aggelos 2 $19.99 61 73% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) WONDERBOY BOBI
THE CANON OF BALLS $3.99 287 98% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,354) Helios Monk
Oirbo $14.99 30 66% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) ImaginationOverflow
Warm Monkey $9.00 47 89% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,690) Evprod
Bambas! $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) DevilishGames
Swiftrace Canyon $11.99 18 100% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Optimotter
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
Elementalist $8.00 22 95% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,280) Dawid Maziarski

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.