Games › Open World › Open World + Post-apocalyptic
Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Open World game?
Open World + Post-apocalyptic
Of 231 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 566 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×4.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $7.5M, ×5031 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 566 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $987 (exactly $987) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.0k (exactly $5,997) |
| Top 25% | $99k (exactly $99,305) |
| Top 5% | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 231 |
| Released games | 716 |
| Announced | 566 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Post-apocalyptic
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Survival
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 587,584 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $990. 6 in 10 of the 111 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 566 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M 
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
| | Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition | older | $59.99 | 164,914 79% | 4.9M | $297M (exactly $296,795,726) | Techland |
 | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
 | Project Zomboid | · EA older | $24.99 | 364,830 94% | 11M | $274M (exactly $273,513,051) | The Indie Stone |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 95,804 87% | 2.9M | $144M (exactly $143,677,259) | Guerrilla |
 | Dying Light: The Beast | $59.99 | 59,318 87% | 1.8M | $107M (exactly $106,754,605) | Techland | |
 | DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH | $69.99 | 15,434 94% | 463k | $32M (exactly $32,406,770) | KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Drive Beyond Horizons | · EA | $24.99 | 17,903 77% | 537k | $13M (exactly $13,421,879) | Drive Beyond Horizons |
 | Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered | $49.99 | 6,860 84% | 206k | $10M (exactly $10,287,942) | Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software | |
 | ZERO Sievert | $19.99 | 14,378 84% | 431k | $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) | CABO Studio | |
 | MISERY | $12.99 | 20,015 85% | 600k | $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) | Platypus Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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