Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Political Sim Open World game?

Open World + Political Sim

Only 11 developers shipped a Political Sim Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Age of History 2: Definitive Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×520 the market median. Revenue is up 35415% on the market; 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 35415% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $111k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $111,488)
Top 5% $779k (exactly $779,220)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 45
Announced 37
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35415% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Political Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,413 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Tropico 5 older $19.99 9,796 78% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,874,661) Haemimont Games
NIMBY Rails · EA older $19.99 2,228 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,132) Weird and Wry
The Guild II Renaissance older $9.99 3,540 82% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,060,938) Runeforge Game Studio
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Tropico 3 older $9.99 843 90% 25k $253k (exactly $252,647) Haemimont Games
RUSSIAPHOBIA older $0.99 5,589 69% 168k $166k (exactly $165,993) European Flameworms
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Governance · EA $17.99 33 66% 990 $18k (exactly $17,810) Governance Studios
Ascendant Dawn $15.99 13 84% 390 $6.2k (exactly $6,236) Nikous Studio
The Three Kingdoms of Shadows: Xuzhou $6.99 23 82% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) 鹏砚
Macht: Cosmic Engine · EA $24.99 5 80% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kestro Games
Doctrine: C.U.L.T. $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Miracles on a Stick
Uber Urban $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) J.F
Bobbies Evolution · EA $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) BeverseStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.