Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Point & Click

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Point & Click Open World game?

Open World + Point & Click

Of 42 developers who shipped a Point & Click Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×498 the market median. Revenue is up 690% on the market; 86 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 690% on the market, 86 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Point & Click
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $1.3k → $17k → $3.0k → $449 → $31k → $33k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Point & Click: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,987)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $745,952)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 182
Announced 86
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 690% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Point & Click
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Point & Click; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Character Customization
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 10,424 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
Murdered: Soul Suspect older $19.99 12,051 87% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) Airtight Games
Sherlock Holmes: Crimes and Punishments older $29.99 7,130 89% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,861) Frogwares
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter older $19.99 6,862 87% 206k $4.1M (exactly $4,115,141) The Astronauts
ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies $39.99 2,911 83% 87k $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) ZA/UM
West of Loathing older $10.99 9,716 97% 291k $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) Asymmetric
Treasure of Nadia older $14.99 6,392 92% 192k $2.9M (exactly $2,874,482) NLT Media
Quern - Undying Thoughts older $24.99 3,812 90% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,857,856) Zadbox Entertainment
EmergeNYC · EA older $24.99 3,760 64% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) FlipSwitch Games
Obduction older $29.99 3,032 78% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,727,890) Cyan, Inc.
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Noun Town Language Learning $19.99 708 84% 21k $425k (exactly $424,588) SUPER HYPER MEGA
The Black Grimoire: Cursebreaker $14.99 880 83% 26k $396k (exactly $395,736) Olipa Games
Brno Transit $8.99 589 85% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Spytihněv
Sister Ray $11.99 410 95% 12k $147k (exactly $147,477) The Growing Stones
Near-Mage $19.99 180 89% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Stuck In Attic
Mosaic of the Strange $12.99 226 92% 6.8k $88k (exactly $88,072) Mark Ffrench
Heroes of the Seven Islands $11.99 191 100% 5.7k $69k (exactly $68,703) Rap2h

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.