Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Platformer Open World game?

Open World + Platformer

Of 175 developers who shipped a Platformer Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 433 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 433 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 433 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 175
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.2k → $809 → $1.3k → $1.8k → $899 → $1.0k (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 175
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,794)
Top 5% $652k (exactly $652,282)
Developers, 2 yr 175
Released games 608
Announced 433
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 432,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $650k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 95 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 433 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
A Hat in Time older $29.99 42,863 97% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,563,841) Gears for Breakfast
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Sonic Frontiers older $39.99 22,701 90% 681k $27M (exactly $27,234,390) Sonic Team
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Constance $19.99 2,822 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) Blue Backpack
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
Little Big Adventure – Twinsen’s Quest $29.99 725 89% 22k $652k (exactly $652,282) [2.21]
Demon Tides $24.99 831 96% 25k $623k (exactly $623,001) Fabraz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.