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Should I ship a Physics Open World game?
Open World + Physics
Of 293 developers who shipped a Physics Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 603 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $4.5M, ×3060 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 603 games are announced against 169 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $657 (exactly $657) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,999) |
| Top 25% | $82k (exactly $81,717) |
| Top 5% | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 293 |
| Released games | 914 |
| Announced | 603 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 384,903 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $660. 7 in 10 of the 144 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 603 games are announced against 169 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
BeamNG.drive 2015 · EA · $291M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition 2026 · $126M 
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | BeamNG.drive | · EA older | $24.99 | 388,236 97% | 12M | $291M (exactly $291,060,529) | BeamNG |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition | $59.99 | 70,073 78% | 2.1M | $126M (exactly $126,110,378) | Asobo Studio | |
| | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
 | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Assetto Corsa | older | $19.99 | 136,067 92% | 4.1M | $82M (exactly $81,599,380) | Kunos Simulazioni |
 | DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO | $49.99 | 50,395 86% | 1.5M | $76M (exactly $75,577,382) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Wobbly Life | $24.99 | 33,034 97% | 991k | $25M (exactly $24,765,590) | RubberBandGames | |
 | Assetto Corsa EVO | · EA | $39.99 | 16,545 60% | 496k | $20M (exactly $19,849,036) | KUNOS Simulazioni |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | Cairn | $29.99 | 18,224 94% | 547k | $16M (exactly $16,396,133) | The Game Bakers | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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