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Should I ship a Party-Based RPG Open World game?
Open World + Party-Based RPG
Of 83 developers who shipped a Party-Based RPG Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 169 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×4.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×3552 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 169 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $809 (exactly $809) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.9k (exactly $5,937) |
| Top 25% | $109k (exactly $109,145) |
| Top 5% | $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 83 |
| Released games | 259 |
| Announced | 169 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Party-Based RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Party-Based RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Character Customization
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 122,406 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $810. 6 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 169 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Kenshi 2018 · $89M 
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH 2025 · $38M 
FINAL FANTASY XVI 2024 · $36M 
Wartales 2023 · $34M 
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition 2015 · $33M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kenshi | older | $29.99 | 98,451 95% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $88,576,365) | Lo-Fi Games |
| | FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH | $49.99 | 25,363 75% | 761k | $38M (exactly $38,036,891) | Square Enix | |
| | FINAL FANTASY XVI | $49.99 | 24,065 78% | 722k | $36M (exactly $36,090,280) | Square Enix | |
| | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
| | Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition | older | $39.99 | 27,485 88% | 825k | $33M (exactly $32,973,754) | Larian Studios |
 | Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,721 85% | 862k | $26M (exactly $25,840,284) | BioWare |
 | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | OCTOPATH TRAVELER II | older | $59.99 | 13,407 93% | 402k | $24M (exactly $24,128,578) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time | $59.99 | 11,771 91% | 353k | $21M (exactly $21,184,269) | LEVEL5 Inc. | |
 | Wasteland 3 | older | $39.99 | 17,263 84% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,710,421) | inXile Entertainment |
 | Wayfinder | $24.99 | 25,104 60% | 753k | $19M (exactly $18,820,469) | Airship Syndicate | |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land | $69.99 | 2,534 64% | 76k | $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator | $17.99 | 7,019 83% | 211k | $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) | Biotech Gameworks | |
 | Keep Driving | $17.99 | 6,188 93% | 186k | $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) | YCJY Games | |
 | Age of Reforging: The Freelands | $29.99 | 2,291 71% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) | PersonaeGame Studio | |
 | Beast Saga | $20.99 | 2,714 80% | 81k | $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) | 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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