Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Motorbike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Motorbike Open World game?

Open World + Motorbike

Only 10 developers shipped a Motorbike Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mon Bazou, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $12k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 8.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 601005% on the market, 20 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Motorbike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $1.5k → $742
Outcomes for Open World + Motorbike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $12k (exactly $12,406)
Top 25% $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181)
Top 5% $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 40
Announced 20
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 600990% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Motorbike
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 27,423 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $1.5M, 1 in 20 over $9.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
Burnout™ Paradise Remastered older $19.99 7,348 64% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,406,596) Stellar Entertainment, Criterion Games
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
Finnish Cottage Simulator · EA $14.99 3,396 93% 102k $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181) RANELA GAMES
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios
Express Rider Simulator · EA $8.99 46 65% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,406) HatinBaba Game Studios
Autos $3.99 6 0% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Leedo Studio
Sakura Drift $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Miki Games
Bike Stunt 3D Freestyle $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nitx Games
Man For Takeaway $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) zjf
Trade Tycoon Life Simulator · EA $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Reme Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.