Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Open World game?

Open World + Mining

Of 73 developers who shipped a Mining Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 144 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×3.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2415 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 144 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 144 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $22k → $22k → $7.2k → $12k → $8.1k → $2.2k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 25% $116k (exactly $115,837)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 196
Announced 144
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Mining; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Building, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 77,150 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 144 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ICARUS 2021 · $59M My Time at Portia 2019 · $31M My Time at Sandrock 2023 · $29M Coral Island 2023 · $20M Fields of Mistria 2026 · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Hydroneer older $14.99 27,131 85% 814k $12M (exactly $12,200,811) Foulball Hangover
Gold Mining Simulator older $19.99 15,132 72% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,074,660) Code Horizon
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.