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Should I ship a Metroidvania Open World game?
Open World + Metroidvania
Of 74 developers who shipped a Metroidvania Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 305 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×231 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 305 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,878) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $19,910) |
| Top 5% | $346k (exactly $346,027) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 74 |
| Released games | 246 |
| Announced | 305 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Metroidvania
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Metroidvania; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 395,577 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 305 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Hollow Knight: Silksong 2025 · $232M 
Hollow Knight 2017 · $226M 
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
Ori and the Will of the Wisps 2020 · $122M 
CONTROL Ultimate Edition 2020 · $61M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hollow Knight: Silksong | $19.99 | 386,977 89% | 12M | $232M (exactly $232,070,107) | Team Cherry | |
| | Hollow Knight | older | $14.99 | 502,960 96% | 15M | $226M (exactly $226,181,112) | Team Cherry |
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | Ori and the Will of the Wisps | older | $29.99 | 136,019 96% | 4.1M | $122M (exactly $122,376,294) | Moon Studios GmbH |
| | CONTROL Ultimate Edition | older | $39.99 | 50,602 86% | 1.5M | $61M (exactly $60,707,219) | Remedy Entertainment |
 | Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 62,690 94% | 1.9M | $38M (exactly $37,595,193) | Moon Studios GmbH |
 | Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition | older | $19.99 | 62,057 96% | 1.9M | $37M (exactly $37,215,583) | Rocksteady Studios |
 | Rain World | older | $24.99 | 46,871 94% | 1.4M | $35M (exactly $35,139,189) | Videocult |
 | Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition | older | $19.99 | 55,935 95% | 1.7M | $34M (exactly $33,544,219) | Rocksteady Studios |
 | Darksiders III | older | $39.99 | 12,519 75% | 376k | $15M (exactly $15,019,044) | Gunfire Games |
 | Revenge of the Savage Planet | $29.99 | 2,845 86% | 85k | $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) | Raccoon Logic Studios Inc. | |
 | Constance | $19.99 | 2,822 82% | 85k | $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) | Blue Backpack | |
 | Eternity Egg | · EA | $19.99 | 577 82% | 17k | $346k (exactly $346,027) | USERLANDS |
 | Zefyr: A Thief's Melody | $19.99 | 401 96% | 12k | $240k (exactly $240,480) | Oneiric Worlds | |
 | Tombwater | $24.99 | 282 92% | 8.5k | $211k (exactly $211,415) | Moth Atlas | |
 | FOUNTAINS | $14.99 | 423 84% | 13k | $190k (exactly $190,223) | John Pywell | |
 | Superhero Simulator | · EA | $5.99 | 867 73% | 26k | $156k (exactly $155,800) | mightyraccoon! Studios |
 | Kromlech | · EA | $29.99 | 136 65% | 4.1k | $122k (exactly $122,359) | Perun Creative |
 | Infinitevania | $14.99 | 247 91% | 7.4k | $111k (exactly $111,076) | JHT Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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