Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Wargame?

Wargame + Medieval

Of 111 developers who shipped a Medieval Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 208 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×458 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 208 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 208 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 111
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $360 → $4.6k → $13k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $11k → $2.2k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 111
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,503)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Developers, 2 yr 111
Released games 310
Announced 208
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, RTS
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 26,989 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 208 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M Besiege 2020 · $22M Total War: ROME REMASTERED 2021 · $11M Age of History 3 2024 · $5.4M Plebby Quest: The Crusades 2020 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Plebby Quest: The Crusades older $19.99 2,625 86% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) PiedPipers Team
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Medieval Kingdom Wars older $14.99 2,233 76% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,180) Reverie World Studios
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Doodle Empires · EA $6.99 1,279 92% 38k $268k (exactly $268,206) Turtle Stack Games
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.