Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Open World game?

Open World + Lovecraftian

Of 21 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×9.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.0M, ×2056 the market median. Revenue is up 570% on the market; 67 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 570% on the market, 67 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $129k → $87k → $260k → $60k → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 25% $401k (exactly $401,001)
Top 5% $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 69
Announced 67
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 570% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Dark, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 28,739 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $400k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DREDGE 2023 · $36M The Sinking City Remastered 2021 · $6.4M Hell is Us 2025 · $6.4M Blood West 2023 · $4.6M SUNLESS SEA 2015 · $4.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter older $19.99 6,862 87% 206k $4.1M (exactly $4,115,141) The Astronauts
Sherlock Holmes The Awakened older $39.99 2,612 81% 78k $3.1M (exactly $3,133,616) Frogwares
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Amatsuko $13.99 142 90% 4.3k $60k (exactly $59,597) Arnau
HYPNOS · EA $19.90 88 95% 2.6k $53k (exactly $52,536) Redlock Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.