Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Open World game?

Open World + Loot

Of 115 developers who shipped a Loot Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 238 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×5756 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 238 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 238 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $6.0k → $5.4k → $4.8k → $7.2k → $9.6k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $96k (exactly $95,952)
Top 5% $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 323
Announced 238
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Loot; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 168,961 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $95k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 238 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Borderlands 3 2020 · $230M Borderlands 2 2012 · $126M Borderlands 4 2025 · $122M Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel 2014 · $38M Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 2023 · $29M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr older $49.99 19,552 75% 587k $29M (exactly $29,322,134) NeocoreGames
OUTRIDERS older $19.99 46,146 66% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,673,756) People Can Fly
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion $69.99 1,838 63% 55k $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) Marvelous Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.