Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Local Co-Op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Co-Op Open World game?

Open World + Local Co-Op

Of 40 developers who shipped a Local Co-Op Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×8.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×12234 the market median. Revenue is up 415% on the market; 77 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 415% on the market, 77 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Local Co-Op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $5.7k → $300 → $28k → $3.6k → $19k → $13k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Local Co-Op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Median $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 25% $99k (exactly $98,765)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,326,182)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 188
Announced 77
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 415% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Local Co-Op; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Adventure, Action
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Family Friendly, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 49,923 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $98k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga 2022 · $57M NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 2016 · $43M DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2015 · $34M Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition 2015 · $33M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga older $49.99 38,294 90% 1.1M $57M (exactly $57,429,512) TT Games
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Outward Definitive Edition older $39.99 24,636 72% 739k $30M (exactly $29,555,809) Nine Dots Studio
Tales of Berseria™ older $49.99 14,380 91% 431k $22M (exactly $21,565,686) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
LEGO® Batman™: Legacy of the Dark Knight $69.99 8,728 95% 262k $18M (exactly $18,326,182) TT Games
Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY $9.99 15,615 85% 468k $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816) Ubisoft - San Francisco, Ubisoft - Osaka
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition $19.99 1,858 83% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Aspyr Media
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
DuneCrawl $19.99 568 74% 17k $341k (exactly $340,630) Alientrap
Kingdom of Night $19.99 326 86% 9.8k $196k (exactly $195,502) Friends of Safety
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
DSS 2: War Industry $17.99 183 83% 5.5k $99k (exactly $98,765) vikingfabian

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.