Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Level Editor

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Level Editor Open World game?

Open World + Level Editor

Of 28 developers who shipped a Level Editor Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×288 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 59 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Level Editor
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $46k → $1.8k → $36k → $18k → $23k → $24k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Level Editor: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Median $18k (exactly $17,810)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $69,034)
Top 5% $432k (exactly $431,892)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 98
Announced 59
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Level Editor
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Level Editor; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Automobile Sim, Driving
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 10,051 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Titan Quest Anniversary Edition older $19.99 25,876 91% 776k $16M (exactly $15,517,837) Iron Lore Entertainment, THQ Nordic
The Bus $39.99 7,831 73% 235k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,851) TML-Studios
Far Cry® 2 older $9.99 17,359 75% 521k $5.2M (exactly $5,202,492) Ubisoft Montreal
SPORE™ Galactic Adventures older $19.99 7,249 89% 217k $4.3M (exactly $4,347,225) EA - Maxis
Aerofly FS 2 Flight Simulator older $49.99 1,956 79% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,933,413) IPACS
Juno: New Origins older $19.99 3,085 89% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,850,074) Jundroo, LLC
Mashinky · EA older $24.99 2,361 84% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,042) Jan Zelený
AirportSim older $34.99 1,412 67% 42k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,176) MS GAMES, MK STUDIOS
Wreckreation $39.99 360 63% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) Three Fields Entertainment
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios
Gentoo Rescue $19.99 237 99% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Jagriff
Backrooms Media $7.99 546 39% 16k $131k (exactly $130,876) NPK Games
Valkyrie Saga $7.99 288 92% 8.6k $69k (exactly $69,034) Public Void
Voxile · EA $17.99 78 69% 2.3k $42k (exactly $42,097) VoxRay Games, Inc.
BMX Bastards · EA $16.99 71 85% 2.1k $36k (exactly $36,189) CSF Games Studio
Plentiful · EA $9.99 79 91% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) GabberGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.