Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Inventory Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Inventory Management Open World game?

Open World + Inventory Management

Of 158 developers who shipped an Inventory Management Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 380 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×1166 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 380 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 380 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Inventory Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 158
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $7.1k → $1.5k → $9.9k → $2.7k → $4.3k → $2.8k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Inventory Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 158
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,967)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326)
Developers, 2 yr 158
Released games 371
Announced 380
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Inventory Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Inventory Management; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 377,295 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 380 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M DREDGE 2023 · $36M Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr 2018 · $29M Titan Quest II 2025 · EA · $18M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr older $49.99 19,552 75% 587k $29M (exactly $29,322,134) NeocoreGames
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Drug Dealer Simulator older $19.99 18,297 85% 549k $11M (exactly $10,972,711) Byterunners
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
Gunsmith Simulator $24.99 3,165 84% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) GameHunters
Astrometica · EA $19.99 2,912 82% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326) BeryMery
Witchspire · EA $22.99 1,849 82% 55k $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) Envar Games
Car Dealership Simulator 2 · EA $14.99 2,374 69% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) Quadfix Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.