Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Hidden Object

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hidden Object Open World game?

Open World + Hidden Object

Of 116 developers who shipped a Hidden Object Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 143 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 15% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 143 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Hidden Object
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $449 → $2.4k → $718 → $1.3k → $359 → $657 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Hidden Object: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,050)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 363
Announced 143
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.95

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Hidden Object
effort 2 / 10 · high · static scenes with click targets

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Hidden Object; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$5.95 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.95.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 2,638 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 65 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Witch It older $19.99 14,540 89% 436k $8.7M (exactly $8,719,638) Barrel Roll Games
Quern - Undying Thoughts older $24.99 3,812 90% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,857,856) Zadbox Entertainment
Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley older $19.99 3,369 97% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,020,389) Hyper Games
Syberia 3 older $14.99 3,231 51% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,981) Microids
IMMORTALITY older $19.99 1,768 84% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,060,270) Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid
Obenseuer · EA older $19.99 1,684 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Loiste Interactive
35MM older $8.99 3,508 71% 105k $946k (exactly $946,108) Носков Сергей
Taiji older $24.99 1,135 92% 34k $851k (exactly $850,910) Matthew VanDevander
Russian Village Simulator older $29.99 889 84% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) VD Games, PropilGames
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
BodyRecords · EA $6.99 581 70% 17k $122k (exactly $121,836) MIROWIN
Mythwrecked: Ambrosia Island $24.99 104 93% 3.1k $78k (exactly $77,969) Polygon Treehouse
30 Birds $17.99 138 96% 4.1k $74k (exactly $74,479) RAM RAM Games, Business Goose Studios
no signal $15.00 69 98% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,050) exodrifter
Bigfoot Life $12.99 62 75% 1.9k $24k (exactly $24,161) Planet 47 Games
Sniper Camouflage Orange Spy Warrior I Buried Two Bodies in the Garden and the Police Haven't Figured Out Yet That They're Missing Because They Were a Lonely Old Couple Who Had No Relatives Simulator 2026 · EA $9.99 77 66% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) The Only Way Out
Townframe $6.99 106 94% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,228) norrimo
Twilight Tails $16.99 43 51% 1.3k $22k (exactly $21,917) Prokopchuk Pavlo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.