Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Open World game?

Open World + Hex Grid

Only 12 developers shipped a Hex Grid Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MoteMancer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×16 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×146 the market median. Revenue is up 1710% on the market; 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1710% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $24k (exactly $23,676)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $86,342)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $218,627)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 42
Announced 20
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1710% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Hex Grid
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 915 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M For The King 2018 · $19M ENDLESS Legend™ 2014 · $13M For The King II 2023 · $9.5M Pit People® 2018 · $4.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Pit People® older $19.99 7,458 92% 224k $4.5M (exactly $4,472,563) The Behemoth
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Sheltered 2 older $19.99 2,015 45% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,208,396) Unicube
King's Bounty: The Legend older $6.99 3,255 90% 98k $683k (exactly $682,574) Katauri Interactive
King's Bounty: Armored Princess older $9.99 1,149 91% 34k $344k (exactly $344,355) Katauri Interactive
MoteMancer · EA $29.99 243 91% 7.3k $219k (exactly $218,627) CyanAvatar Studios
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Mistward $11.99 74 59% 2.2k $27k (exactly $26,618) Sokpop Collective
Plentiful · EA $9.99 79 91% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) GabberGames
ErMa (Early Mammal) $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) AlmyriganHero
The Adventure of Fred - The traveler's dial - $8.99 2 50% 60 $539 (exactly $539) FredsGamesStudios
Minesweeper Madness $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Bear Falls Games
Crafting in Berxley $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Quietly Packed Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.