Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Open World game?

Open World + Heist

Only 12 developers shipped a Heist Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Star Wars Outlaws, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×17196 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 39 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 39 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $112k → $16k → $355k → $1.6k
Outcomes for Open World + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $355k (exactly $354,608)
Top 5% $26M (exactly $25,759,120)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 66
Announced 39
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 20,733 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $25M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN 2015 · $44M Dishonored 2 2016 · $39M Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition older $39.99 71,706 84% 2.2M $86M (exactly $86,025,688) Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux))
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN older $19.99 73,137 91% 2.2M $44M (exactly $43,860,259) KONAMI
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Thief Simulator older $19.99 37,377 88% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,414,987) Noble Muffins
Thief older $19.99 17,389 75% 522k $10M (exactly $10,428,183) Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Hobo: Tough Life older $29.99 8,679 84% 260k $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) Perun Creative
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
OPG: Clan Wars $9.99 101 74% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Anarchy Games, Street's Game
Gauley : Experience Nepal · EA $14.99 18 88% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Ashim Shakya
No Knock $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) No Knock
PolyCrime · EA $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) FoxGameDev
Heist Haven · EA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Somehow Games
Smoke Shop Simulator · EA $3.99 6 0% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Anka Games
Beyond The Limits · EA $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) HardFMGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.