Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Wargame?

Wargame + Grid-Based Movement

Of 21 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $53k, ×85 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 51 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 51 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $1.2k → $327 → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Top 5% $54k (exactly $53,514)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 61
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.89

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Grid-Based Movement; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Tanks
Price point
$10.89 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.89.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 957 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warside 2025 · $410k Field of Glory II: Medieval 2021 · $381k Death Crown 2019 · $201k TINY METAL 2017 · $199k Möbius Front '83 2020 · $197k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Field of Glory II: Medieval older $29.99 424 86% 13k $381k (exactly $381,473) Byzantine Games
Death Crown older $12.99 516 89% 15k $201k (exactly $201,085) 5WORD Team
TINY METAL older $24.99 265 69% 8.0k $199k (exactly $198,670) AREA 35, Inc.
Möbius Front '83 older $19.99 328 74% 9.8k $197k (exactly $196,702) Zachtronics
Vestaria Saga II: The Sacred Sword of Silvanister older $19.99 235 87% 7.1k $141k (exactly $140,930) Vestaria Project
TINY METAL: FULL METAL RUMBLE older $14.99 177 80% 5.3k $80k (exactly $79,597) AREA 35, Inc.
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
One-inch Tactics older $19.99 88 94% 2.6k $53k (exactly $52,774) KOGADO STUDIO
Apes Warfare $14.99 90 95% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,473) GigaQuests, STOIC Ent.
Earth vs Mars $14.99 74 85% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Relic Entertainment
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
Cold War Battles $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Kudos Games
Roman General · EA $8.99 11 100% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Moore Games
Tide Of Tactics $14.99 4 100% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Lyrical Games
Tracktopia $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) GalaDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.