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Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Open World game?
Open World + Grid-Based Movement
Of 30 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×2.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×82 the market median. Revenue is up 1245% on the market; 51 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.7k (exactly $3,742) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $22,789) |
| Top 5% | $122k (exactly $122,339) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 79 |
| Announced | 51 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1245% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Grid-Based Movement
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Grid-Based Movement; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Crafting
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.00 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Nonlinear
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $20.00 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,095 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Might & Magic X - Legacy 2014 · $2.9M 
NEO Scavenger 2014 · $2.0M 
Mashinky 2018 · EA · $1.8M 
Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M 
Avernum: Escape From the Pit 2012 · $357k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Might & Magic X - Legacy | older | $29.99 | 3,178 65% | 95k | $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) | Ubisoft |
| | NEO Scavenger | older | $14.99 | 4,437 89% | 133k | $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) | Blue Bottle Games |
| | Mashinky | · EA older | $24.99 | 2,361 84% | 71k | $1.8M (exactly $1,770,042) | Jan Zelený |
| | Low Magic Age | · EA older | $14.99 | 3,342 89% | 100k | $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) | Low Magic Studios |
| | Avernum: Escape From the Pit | older | $9.99 | 1,191 91% | 36k | $357k (exactly $356,943) | Spiderweb Software |
 | Wizardry 8 | older | $9.99 | 1,080 89% | 32k | $324k (exactly $323,676) | Sir-Tech Canada |
 | Archaelund | · EA older | $24.99 | 417 84% | 13k | $313k (exactly $312,625) | 4 Dimension Games |
 | Wayward | · EA older | $7.99 | 1,213 86% | 36k | $291k (exactly $290,756) | Unlok |
 | Legends of Amberland: The Forgotten Crown | older | $19.99 | 284 94% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $170,315) | Silver Lemur Games |
 | Bonfire Peaks | older | $19.99 | 284 93% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $170,315) | Corey Martin, Alan Hazelden, Mari Zand,… (Corey Martin, Alan Hazelden, Mari Zand, Zach Soares) |
 | Gentoo Rescue | $19.99 | 237 99% | 7.1k | $142k (exactly $142,129) | Jagriff | |
 | Veterum | $19.99 | 204 85% | 6.1k | $122k (exactly $122,339) | Crasleen Games | |
 | Avernum 4: Greed and Glory | $19.99 | 133 92% | 4.0k | $80k (exactly $79,760) | Spiderweb Software | |
 | Trolddom | $9.99 | 204 94% | 6.1k | $61k (exactly $61,139) | Plant Based Games | |
 | Icaria | $24.99 | 79 75% | 2.4k | $59k (exactly $59,226) | Blindsight Games LLC | |
 | Toroban | $20.00 | 60 86% | 1.8k | $36k (exactly $36,000) | Hebert Games LLC | |
 | Legends of Amberland III: The Crimson Tower | $19.99 | 53 98% | 1.6k | $32k (exactly $31,784) | Silver Lemur Games | |
 | Dragonero | $19.99 | 38 68% | 1.1k | $23k (exactly $22,789) | Operaludica | |
 | Nuumonsters | $9.99 | 55 54% | 1.7k | $16k (exactly $16,484) | Yanako RPGs | |
 | Alchemist's Alcove | $7.99 | 32 96% | 960 | $7.7k (exactly $7,670) | Nefarious Brew Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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