Games › Open World › Open World + Grand Strategy
Should I ship a Grand Strategy Open World game?
Open World + Grand Strategy
Of 24 developers who shipped a Grand Strategy Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $24k, ×16 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2342 the market median. Revenue is up 4145% on the market; 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $4.2k (exactly $4,198) |
|---|---|
| Median | $24k (exactly $23,747) |
| Top 25% | $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 101 |
| Announced | 52 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $17.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4145% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Grand Strategy
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Grand Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Strategy, 4X
- Price point
- $17.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 19,671 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
 | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Total War: ATTILA | older | $19.99 | 26,918 82% | 808k | $16M (exactly $16,142,725) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Whiskerwood | · EA | $29.99 | 3,221 92% | 97k | $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) | Minakata Dynamics |
 | Nova Roma | · EA | $29.99 | 2,085 93% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) | Lion Shield |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Crown and Adventure | $19.99 | 1,693 61% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) | C3D Games | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
 | Chaos Front | $19.99 | 252 59% | 7.6k | $151k (exactly $151,124) | Han Zhiyu | |
 | Project Rebearth | $17.99 | 184 70% | 5.5k | $99k (exactly $99,305) | Program Sam |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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