Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Wargame?

Wargame + Futuristic

Of 56 developers who shipped a Futuristic Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1614 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 101 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 101 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $1.3k → $628 → $15k → $9.4k → $300 → $1.6k (still earning) → $43k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,391)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 156
Announced 101
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 13,892 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Tempest Rising 2025 · $12M Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance 2024 · $4.1M Carrier Command 2 2021 · $3.1M ICBM: Escalation 2024 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Carrier Command 2 older $29.99 3,444 82% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,098,567) Geometa
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Horizon older $29.99 377 58% 11k $339k (exactly $339,187) L3O Interactive
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Industrial Annihilation · EA $29.99 206 27% 6.2k $185k (exactly $185,338) Galactic Annihilation
Liquidation RTS · EA $21.99 161 89% 4.8k $106k (exactly $106,212) Divio
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
Age Of Warbots $9.99 160 83% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) VDimension
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.