Do I ship it?

Games › Football (American) › Football (American) + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Strategy

Of 22 developers who shipped a Strategy Football (American) game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×594 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 20 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $9.7k → $21k → $3.6k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,793)
Top 5% $891k (exactly $890,554)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 80
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sports, Management
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 55% positive over 10,572 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  4. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + SportsFair50 devs · median $1.3k · 40 announced
  6. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  7. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  8. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $8.1k · 7 announced
  9. + ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $3.6k · 18 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds34 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds11 devs · median $719 · 7 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 2025 · $11M Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) 2017 · $6.4M EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 2026 · $5.4M EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 2026 · $1.7M Football Coach: College Dynasty 2025 · $891k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 $69.99 5,416 52% 162k $11M (exactly $11,371,975) Tiburon
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 $69.99 793 36% 24k $1.7M (exactly $1,665,062) Tiburon
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
Legend Bowl older $24.99 910 87% 27k $682k (exactly $682,227) Super Pixel Games
Blood Bowl: Chaos Edition (Classic) older $14.99 1,386 79% 42k $623k (exactly $623,284) Cyanide Studios
Front Office Football Nine older $29.99 165 79% 5.0k $148k (exactly $148,450) Solecismic Software
Axis Football 2024 older $19.99 207 71% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) Axis Games
Axis Football 2023 older $14.99 254 78% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Axis Games
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Axis Football 2027 $19.99 44 72% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Axis Games
War Room Football $9.99 71 94% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Tanish Jagtap
Pro Strategy Football 2026 $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Kerry Batts
Football Fictional World Simulator $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) keigo0221
Draft Day Sports: Pro Football 2025 $24.99 13 46% 390 $9.7k (exactly $9,746) Wolverine Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.