Do I ship it?

Games › Football (American) › Football (American) + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Simulation

Of 34 developers who shipped a Simulation Football (American) game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $900k, ×602 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 19 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 19 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $1.7k → $831k → $22k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,992)
Top 5% $902k (exactly $901,650)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 108
Announced 19
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Strategy, Choices Matter
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 53% positive over 11,748 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  4. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + SportsFair50 devs · median $1.3k · 40 announced
  6. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  7. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  8. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $8.1k · 7 announced
  9. + ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $3.6k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 20 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds11 devs · median $719 · 7 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 2025 · $11M EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 2026 · $5.4M EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 2026 · $1.7M Rugby League 26 2025 · $902k Football Coach: College Dynasty 2025 · $891k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 $69.99 5,416 52% 162k $11M (exactly $11,371,975) Tiburon
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 $69.99 793 36% 24k $1.7M (exactly $1,665,062) Tiburon
Rugby League 26 $59.99 501 35% 15k $902k (exactly $901,650) Big Ant Studios
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
Rugby 25 $49.99 554 38% 17k $831k (exactly $830,834) Big Ant Studios
Legend Bowl older $24.99 910 87% 27k $682k (exactly $682,227) Super Pixel Games
AFL 23 older $59.99 370 45% 11k $666k (exactly $665,889) Big Ant Studios
Football Simulator · EA older $19.99 896 79% 27k $537k (exactly $537,331) Refactor Games
Sunday Rivals older $19.99 300 91% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) 26k
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Backyard Football '99 $9.99 174 94% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Mega Cat Studios
Move The Chains - Season 1 · EA $11.99 83 77% 2.5k $30k (exactly $29,855) MissFortune
Axis Football 2027 $19.99 44 72% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Axis Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.