Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Football (American)

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Football (American) game?

PvP + Football (American)

Only 17 developers shipped a PvP Football (American) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Revenue is up 2280% on the market; 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 2280% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Football (American)
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $3.1k → $1.3k → $69k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Football (American): Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,966)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,474,646)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 47
Announced 12
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2280% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Football (American); 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Local Multiplayer, Co-op
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 15,428 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  5. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  6. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  8. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  9. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  10. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  11. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced
  12. + Match 3Long shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 $69.99 793 36% 24k $1.7M (exactly $1,665,062) Tiburon
Rugby 25 $49.99 554 38% 17k $831k (exactly $830,834) Big Ant Studios
Legend Bowl older $24.99 910 87% 27k $682k (exactly $682,227) Super Pixel Games
AFL 23 older $59.99 370 45% 11k $666k (exactly $665,889) Big Ant Studios
Football Simulator · EA older $19.99 896 79% 27k $537k (exactly $537,331) Refactor Games
College Bowl older $24.99 263 84% 7.9k $197k (exactly $197,171) Super Pixel Games
Sunday Rivals older $19.99 300 91% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) 26k
Mutant Football League 2 $24.99 135 73% 4.1k $101k (exactly $101,210) Digital Dreams Entertainment
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Pro Strategy Football 2026 $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Kerry Batts
Lacrosse 26 $34.99 17 88% 510 $18k (exactly $17,845) Crosse Studios
Pro Football Online · EA $4.99 13 46% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Skywall Studios LLC
Rough Rivals $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Constantin Roussel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.