Do I ship it?

GamesFootball (American)Football (American) + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Management Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Management

Only 18 developers shipped a Management Football (American) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Football Coach: College Dynasty, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×594 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 18 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 18 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $1.1k → $21k → $8.1k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,793)
Top 5% $891k (exactly $890,554)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 57
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Management; all of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sports, Strategy
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,830 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  4. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + SportsFair50 devs · median $1.3k · 40 announced
  6. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  7. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  8. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $8.1k · 7 announced
  9. + StrategyPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 20 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds34 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds11 devs · median $719 · 7 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
AFL 23 older $59.99 370 45% 11k $666k (exactly $665,889) Big Ant Studios
Front Office Football Eight older $19.99 275 84% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Solecismic Software
Axis Football 2024 older $19.99 207 71% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) Axis Games
Axis Football 2023 older $14.99 254 78% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Axis Games
Rugby League Team Manager 3 older $39.99 75 80% 2.3k $90k (exactly $89,978) Alternative Software Ltd
Rugby Union Team Manager 4 older $39.99 60 70% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) Alternative Software Ltd
Rugby Union Team Manager 3 older $39.99 58 68% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Alternative Software Ltd
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Axis Football 2020 older $9.99 154 71% 4.6k $46k (exactly $46,154) Axis Games
Axis Football 2027 $19.99 44 72% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Axis Games
War Room Football $9.99 71 94% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Tanish Jagtap
Pro Strategy Football 2026 $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Kerry Batts
Football Fictional World Simulator $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) keigo0221
Gridiron Masters '98 · EA $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Software98
Football Dynasty Manager $14.99 13 84% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Nekolitch Games
Brutal Ball Manager 2 · EA $9.99 18 100% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Stout Kassel Games
Pro Strategy Football 2027 $24.99 5 60% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kerry Batts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.