Do I ship it?

Games › Football (American) › Football (American) + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Arcade

Only 13 developers shipped an Arcade Football (American) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rugby 25, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 495% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 495% on the market, 11 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $898 → $52k → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,845)
Top 5% $831k (exactly $830,834)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 37
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 495% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Arcade
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 911 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  5. + SportsFair50 devs · median $1.3k · 40 announced
  6. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  7. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  8. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $8.1k · 7 announced
  9. + ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $3.6k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 20 announced
  11. + SimulationPoor odds34 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds11 devs · median $719 · 7 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FlatOut 2 2006 · $5.8M Rugby 25 2025 · $831k Legend Bowl 2021 · $682k Football Simulator 2022 · EA · $537k Mutant Football League 2017 · $206k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Rugby 25 $49.99 554 38% 17k $831k (exactly $830,834) Big Ant Studios
Legend Bowl older $24.99 910 87% 27k $682k (exactly $682,227) Super Pixel Games
Football Simulator · EA older $19.99 896 79% 27k $537k (exactly $537,331) Refactor Games
Mutant Football League older $9.99 689 93% 21k $206k (exactly $206,493) Digital Dreams Entertainment
College Bowl older $24.99 263 84% 7.9k $197k (exactly $197,171) Super Pixel Games
Sunday Rivals older $19.99 300 91% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) 26k
Mutant Football League 2 $24.99 135 73% 4.1k $101k (exactly $101,210) Digital Dreams Entertainment
2MD: VR Football Classic older $12.99 139 91% 4.2k $54k (exactly $54,168) Truant pixel, LLC
Backyard Football '99 $9.99 174 94% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Mega Cat Studios
Lacrosse 26 $34.99 17 88% 510 $18k (exactly $17,845) Crosse Studios
GOAL3 $8.99 11 90% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) thirteen
Rough Rivals $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Constantin Roussel
Savage Arena: Dead Ball Zone $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Rage Software, Jordan Freeman Group
MINI Rugby: World Tour $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Chunky Games
Project: KNOSSOS $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Ancient Pixel
Battle Ball $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Dawg Patch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.