Do I ship it?

Games › Football (American) › Football (American) + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Sports

Of 50 developers who shipped a Sports Football (American) game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 40 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 40 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $179 → $1.1k → $1.3k → $22k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,793)
Top 5% $902k (exactly $901,650)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 158
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, PvP, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 22,936 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  4. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $8.1k · 7 announced
  8. + ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $3.6k · 18 announced
  9. + StrategyPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 20 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds34 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds11 devs · median $719 · 7 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road 2025 · $23M EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 2025 · $11M Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) 2017 · $6.4M EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 2026 · $5.4M EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 2026 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 26 $69.99 5,416 52% 162k $11M (exactly $11,371,975) Tiburon
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 $69.99 793 36% 24k $1.7M (exactly $1,665,062) Tiburon
Rugby League 26 $59.99 501 35% 15k $902k (exactly $901,650) Big Ant Studios
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
Rugby 25 $49.99 554 38% 17k $831k (exactly $830,834) Big Ant Studios
Legend Bowl older $24.99 910 87% 27k $682k (exactly $682,227) Super Pixel Games
AFL 23 older $59.99 370 45% 11k $666k (exactly $665,889) Big Ant Studios
Mutant Football League 2 $24.99 135 73% 4.1k $101k (exactly $101,210) Digital Dreams Entertainment
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Backyard Football '99 $9.99 174 94% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Mega Cat Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.