Do I ship it?

Games › Football (American) › Football (American) + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Action

Only 16 developers shipped an Action Football (American) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 2625% on the market; 6 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2625% on the market, 6 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $898 → $900 → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,663)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,474,646)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 6
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2625% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Action
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 11,572 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  5. + SportsFair50 devs · median $1.3k · 40 announced
  6. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds11 devs · median $8.1k · 7 announced
  8. + ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $3.6k · 18 announced
  9. + StrategyPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 20 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds34 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds11 devs · median $719 · 7 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road 2025 · $23M Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) 2017 · $6.4M FlatOut 2 2006 · $5.8M Mutant Football League 2017 · $206k Sunday Rivals 2022 · $180k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Mutant Football League older $9.99 689 93% 21k $206k (exactly $206,493) Digital Dreams Entertainment
Sunday Rivals older $19.99 300 91% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) 26k
Mutant Football League 2 $24.99 135 73% 4.1k $101k (exactly $101,210) Digital Dreams Entertainment
Rugby League Team Manager 3 older $39.99 75 80% 2.3k $90k (exactly $89,978) Alternative Software Ltd
Rugby Union Team Manager 3 older $39.99 58 68% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Alternative Software Ltd
2MD: VR Football Classic older $12.99 139 91% 4.2k $54k (exactly $54,168) Truant pixel, LLC
2MD: VR Football Evolution older $12.99 69 86% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Truant Pixel, LLC
Fuck's Quest II $4.99 133 100% 4.0k $20k (exactly $19,910) Ancient Computer Tech
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Tackle for Loss $10.99 20 100% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) Indifferent Penguin
Rough Rivals $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Constantin Roussel
Dadlympics · EA $3.99 14 78% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Gooby Games
Ultimate Soccer $2.99 15 73% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) Grands
Retro Rugby $10.00 3 66% 90 $900 (exactly $900) Lombard Games
Savage Arena: Dead Ball Zone $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Rage Software, Jordan Freeman Group

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.