Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Open World game?

Open World + Fishing

Of 80 developers who shipped a Fishing Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×874 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 197 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 197 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $62k → $87k → $9.0k → $69k → $3.2k → $300 → $4.3k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $72,402)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 199
Announced 197
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Fishing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 24,440 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 7 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M DREDGE 2023 · $36M Coral Island 2023 · $20M Feed and Grow: Fish 2016 · EA · $9.3M DYSMANTLE 2021 · $6.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Feed and Grow: Fish · EA older $14.99 20,750 78% 623k $9.3M (exactly $9,331,275) Old B1ood
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
Battle Chasers: Nightwar older $29.99 5,573 87% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,014,028) Airship Syndicate
Ultimate Fishing Simulator® older $19.99 8,256 89% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,951,123) Ultimate Games S.A., Bit Golem
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Nice Day for Fishing $19.99 2,609 86% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,564,617) FusionPlay
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Mika and The Witch's Mountain $19.99 671 86% 20k $402k (exactly $402,399) Chibig, Nukefist
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX
Caravanners · EA $17.99 712 35% 21k $384k (exactly $384,266) Akif Akdemir
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.