Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Fighting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fighting Open World game?

Open World + Fighting

Only 12 developers shipped a Fighting Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120k, ×78 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $75M, ×50452 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 77.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Fighting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $50k → $7.0M → $137k → $222k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Fighting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,999)
Median $117k (exactly $116,677)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Top 5% $76M (exactly $75,577,382)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 90
Announced 26
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Fighting
Price point
$16.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 56,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $120k, 1 in 4 over $1.1M, 1 in 20 over $75M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M Batman™: Arkham Knight 2015 · $67M Street Fighter™ 6 2023 · $60M NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 2016 · $43M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Samson $24.99 2,911 54% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377) Liquid Swords
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Last Drop · EA $13.99 278 87% 8.3k $117k (exactly $116,677) Lohkare Games Oy
The Henchmen $9.99 21 76% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Alex Von Bronx
Bank King Simulator · EA $9.99 12 41% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) RRG Studio
Pure Instinct Katana $24.99 4 75% 120 $3.0k (exactly $2,999) Pure Instinct Studio
Hybrid Beasts $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Beastbits

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.