Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Open World game?

Open World + Female Protagonist

Of 184 developers who shipped a Female-Led Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 354 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7279 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 354 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 354 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 184
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $10k → $8.1k → $5.5k → $1.9k → $4.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 184
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,838)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,557)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,903,742)
Developers, 2 yr 184
Released games 700
Announced 354
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 573,895 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 354 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M Hollow Knight: Silksong 2025 · $232M Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition 2020 · $144M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition older $39.99 71,706 84% 2.2M $86M (exactly $86,025,688) Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux))
Slime Rancher older $19.99 139,509 98% 4.2M $84M (exactly $83,663,547) Monomi Park
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.