Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Open World game?

Open World + Farming

Of 23 developers who shipped a Farming Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×16 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×2970 the market median. Revenue is up 280% on the market; 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 280% on the market, 45 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $1.4M → $1.2k → $777k → $18k → $13k → $70k (still earning) → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Median $25k (exactly $24,588)
Top 25% $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 60
Announced 45
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 280% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Sandbox, Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 48,933 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.2k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $1.3M, 1 in 20 over $4.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.2k. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm 2023 · $31M Fields of Mistria 2026 · $13M STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town 2020 · $6.3M Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M HARVESTELLA 2022 · $3.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Farming Simulator 2013: Titanium Edition older $14.99 3,926 91% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,765,522) GIANTS Software
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks
Chill Town $9.99 200 68% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Low-Hi Tech
Hillshade Farm · EA $19.50 66 62% 2.0k $39k (exactly $38,610) NORTHSTAR Games
Elsewhere · EA $15.99 80 96% 2.4k $38k (exactly $38,376) Four White Cats

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.