Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Wargame?

Wargame + Exploration

Of 59 developers who shipped an Exploration Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1021 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 108 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 108 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $5.8k → $683 → $390 → $6.2k → $3.1k → $479 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,776)
Top 5% $641k (exactly $641,482)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 150
Announced 108
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 5,292 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 2023 · $4.3M Carrier Command 2 2021 · $3.1M Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun 2024 · $2.3M Empire of the Ants 2024 · $1.1M Vietnam War 2025 · EA · $766k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 older $19.99 7,206 84% 216k $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) Brilliant Game Studios
Carrier Command 2 older $29.99 3,444 82% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,098,567) Geometa
Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun older $19.99 3,829 66% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,296,251) ZUIJIANGYUE Game
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Land of War - The Beginning older $19.99 713 53% 21k $428k (exactly $427,586) MS GAMES
Horizon older $29.99 377 58% 11k $339k (exactly $339,187) L3O Interactive
The Falconeer: Revolution Remaster older $19.99 416 81% 12k $249k (exactly $249,475) Tomas Sala
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Myths and Legends $17.99 54 92% 1.6k $29k (exactly $29,144) Artificial Worlds
Powerplay · EA $18.99 42 85% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,927) Frantic
Rising Army $11.99 57 64% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) Arkbits

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.