Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Dynamic Narration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dynamic Narration Open World game?

Open World + Dynamic Narration

Of 25 developers who shipped a Dynamic Narration Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 57 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 350% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 57 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Dynamic Narration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $390 → $269 → $210 → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Dynamic Narration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $267k (exactly $267,466)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 59
Announced 57
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Dynamic Narration
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Dynamic Narration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, RPG, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 10,106 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Drova - Forsaken Kin 2024 · $7.1M CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience 2020 · $1.6M Outcast - A New Beginning 2024 · $1.5M The Town of Light 2016 · $1.2M 武林志2 (Wushu Chronicles 2) 2021 · EA · $477k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience older $19.99 2,596 91% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) Delve Interactive
Outcast - A New Beginning older $39.99 1,232 78% 37k $1.5M (exactly $1,478,030) Appeal Studios
The Town of Light older $18.99 2,052 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,024) LKA
武林志2 (Wushu Chronicles 2) · EA older $19.99 795 41% 24k $477k (exactly $476,761) JiangHu Studio
A Highland Song older $17.99 553 87% 17k $298k (exactly $298,454) inkle Ltd
Under The Island $19.99 446 92% 13k $267k (exactly $267,466) Slime King Games
AWAY: The Survival Series older $19.99 318 55% 9.5k $191k (exactly $190,705) Breaking Walls
Salty Hounds · EA older $19.99 253 73% 7.6k $152k (exactly $151,724) Topping Palette
Titan Chaser older $4.99 1,000 82% 30k $150k (exactly $149,700) Stas Shostak
Dustgrave: A Sandbox RPG · EA $21.99 94 71% 2.8k $62k (exactly $62,012) Innervoid Interactive
The End Grows $9.99 26 92% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Atopia.studio
Primage · EA $6.99 21 76% 630 $4.4k (exactly $4,404) Fadzior
Octopus Goulash $12.99 10 70% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) Alessio Serenellini
ORBITAL $9.99 12 66% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Night Sky Dogs
Veilscripture AI $39.99 2 100% 60 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Lanternwake
Neverending AI Storybook $2.49 27 62% 810 $2.0k (exactly $2,017) MRA Labs LLC
Doctrine: C.U.L.T. $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Miracles on a Stick

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.