Games › Open World › Open World + Dinosaurs
Should I ship a Dinosaur Open World game?
Open World + Dinosaurs
Of 27 developers who shipped a Dinosaur Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×73 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 48 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
| Top 25% | $30k (exactly $29,723) |
| Top 5% | $109k (exactly $108,989) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 27 |
| Released games | 90 |
| Announced | 48 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Dinosaurs
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 12,379 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M 
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition 2020 · $144M 
Jurassic World Evolution 2 2021 · $71M 
The Isle 2015 · EA · $67M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
| | Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 95,804 87% | 2.9M | $144M (exactly $143,677,259) | Guerrilla |
| | Jurassic World Evolution 2 | older | $59.99 | 39,644 90% | 1.2M | $71M (exactly $71,347,307) | Frontier Developments |
| | The Isle | · EA older | $19.99 | 111,397 80% | 3.3M | $67M (exactly $66,804,781) | Afterthought LLC |
 | Jurassic World Evolution | older | $44.99 | 48,311 87% | 1.4M | $65M (exactly $65,205,357) | Frontier Developments |
 | Jurassic World Evolution 3 | $59.99 | 11,387 93% | 342k | $20M (exactly $20,493,184) | Frontier Developments | |
 | PixARK | older | $19.99 | 11,142 73% | 334k | $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) | Snail Games USA |
 | Prehistoric Kingdom | · EA older | $29.99 | 5,640 90% | 169k | $5.1M (exactly $5,074,308) | Blue Meridian |
 | Beasts of Bermuda | · EA older | $19.99 | 8,430 69% | 253k | $5.1M (exactly $5,055,471) | Sastrei Studios, LLC |
 | Collision Course | $11.99 | 303 72% | 9.1k | $109k (exactly $108,989) | Crynosaurs | |
 | Dewdrop Dynasty | $11.99 | 233 78% | 7.0k | $84k (exactly $83,810) | Goodgis | |
 | Spirit Animal Survival | $19.99 | 96 62% | 2.9k | $58k (exactly $57,571) | TRUEFX GAMES | |
 | DragonRoad | $19.98 | 82 91% | 2.5k | $49k (exactly $49,151) | XuJie | |
 | Primeval | $14.99 | 75 60% | 2.3k | $34k (exactly $33,728) | Exhibyte | |
 | Mesorift Survival | · EA | $7.99 | 124 67% | 3.7k | $30k (exactly $29,723) | Meik.W Interactive |
 | Paleo Dive | $19.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $20k (exactly $19,790) | Astra Render | |
 | PAW Patrol™: Dino World | $39.99 | 14 64% | 420 | $17k (exactly $16,796) | 3DClouds | |
 | MIRO | $14.99 | 32 100% | 960 | $14k (exactly $14,390) | Lost Saved Data_ |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.