Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Dice game?

Dice + Fantasy

Of 41 developers who shipped a Fantasy Dice game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×707 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 55 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 55 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dice + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $1.2k → $34k → $2.6k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dice + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,431)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,866)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 51
Announced 55
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dice; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,778 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dice with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair24 devs · median $5.1k · 32 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  4. + Turn-Based TacticsFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + SimulationFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 34 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  8. + RPGPoor odds45 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + Card GamePoor odds34 devs · median $7.2k · 72 announced
  10. + RoguelitePoor odds60 devs · median $6.1k · 115 announced
  11. + DeckbuildingPoor odds58 devs · median $4.8k · 101 announced
  12. + Choices MatterPoor odds29 devs · median $2.7k · 52 announced

All 19 pairs on the Dice page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gordian Quest 2022 · $3.2M Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked 2025 · $1.1M Rune Dice 2026 · $570k Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? 2026 · $336k Dobbel Dungeon 2026 · $264k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Rune Dice $14.99 1,267 79% 38k $570k (exactly $569,770) Smart Raven Studio
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
Dice Legends $19.99 252 76% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Big Bite Games, Ad Luna
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Circadian Dice older $5.99 553 94% 17k $99k (exactly $99,374) Shuffle Up Games
Lust Arcanum $17.99 184 75% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) GigiBee, Karne
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Die For The Lich · EA $11.99 275 78% 8.3k $99k (exactly $98,918) Monovoid
Archon Soul $13.99 170 88% 5.1k $71k (exactly $71,349) PolyGryph

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.