Games › Open World › Open World + Detective
Should I ship a Detective Open World game?
Open World + Detective
Of 42 developers who shipped a Detective Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×1829 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 95 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,960) |
| Top 25% | $147k (exactly $147,477) |
| Top 5% | $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 42 |
| Released games | 122 |
| Announced | 95 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Detective
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 32,122 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Batman™: Arkham Knight 2015 · $67M 
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition 2010 · $37M 
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition 2012 · $34M 
Batman™: Arkham Origins 2013 · $27M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Batman™: Arkham Knight | older | $19.99 | 111,190 92% | 3.3M | $67M (exactly $66,680,643) | Rocksteady Studios |
| | Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition | older | $19.99 | 62,057 96% | 1.9M | $37M (exactly $37,215,583) | Rocksteady Studios |
| | Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition | older | $19.99 | 55,935 95% | 1.7M | $34M (exactly $33,544,219) | Rocksteady Studios |
| | Batman™: Arkham Origins | older | $19.99 | 45,536 90% | 1.4M | $27M (exactly $27,307,939) | WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage |
 | Contraband Police | older | $29.99 | 24,882 95% | 746k | $22M (exactly $22,386,335) | Crazy Rocks |
 | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Pathologic 2 | older | $34.99 | 9,554 92% | 287k | $10M (exactly $10,028,834) | Ice-Pick Lodge |
 | Murdered: Soul Suspect | older | $19.99 | 12,051 87% | 362k | $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) | Airtight Games |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | Enigma of Fear | $29.99 | 3,045 95% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) | Dumativa, Cellbit | |
 | Pathologic 3 | $34.99 | 2,528 80% | 76k | $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) | Ice-Pick Lodge | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Equinox: Homecoming | $14.99 | 1,294 80% | 39k | $582k (exactly $581,912) | Blue Scarab Entertainment | |
 | Responding | · EA | $24.99 | 409 45% | 12k | $307k (exactly $306,627) | Visionary Studios |
 | On Your Tail | $19.99 | 292 87% | 8.8k | $175k (exactly $175,112) | Memorable Games | |
 | Vaudeville | $19.99 | 283 48% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Bumblebee Studios | |
 | Superhero Simulator | · EA | $5.99 | 867 73% | 26k | $156k (exactly $155,800) | mightyraccoon! Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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