Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Open World game?

Open World + Deckbuilding

Of 20 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.0M, ×2704 the market median. Revenue is up 310% on the market; 46 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 310% on the market, 46 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $25k → $7.2k → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Median $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $48,252)
Top 5% $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 40
Announced 46
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 310% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Deckbuilding; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Character Customization, Collectathon
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 8,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $4.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M Black Book 2021 · $4.0M Ooblets 2023 · $1.2M Ravenbound 2023 · $693k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Ooblets older $29.99 1,388 91% 42k $1.2M (exactly $1,248,784) Glumberland
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Disillusion ST $10.99 524 96% 16k $173k (exactly $172,763) Disillusion Dev, Disillusion Dev
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
大宋英雄传(SongHeros) · EA $9.99 161 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) LazyManGameStudio
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
Yuma Nest · EA $19.99 57 89% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Piokou
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
Nuumonsters $9.99 55 54% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Yanako RPGs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.